Fairbanks Borough progressives pull off a clean sweep, take majority on Assembly
Fairbanks Borough progressives pull off a clean sweep, take majority on Assembly
In the battle between hollow moderation and unmitigated rage, it turns out neither is a great strategy.
Good afternoon, Alaska. It’s Wednesday.
In this edition: Fairbanks North Star Borough progressives had a great night in Tuesday’s elections, flipping the Assembly and showing the door to the culture-war conservatives on the School Board. It turns out that neither hollow moderation nor roiling rage are particularly effective campaign strategies for the borough’s far-right conservatives. In this edition, we’ll unpack the results and consider some of the other factors that may have played into an all-around lousy night for conservatives.
Current mood: 🗳️
Fairbanks Borough progressives pull off a clean sweep, take majority on Assembly
The central question in yesterday’s edition of this newsletter was which conservative campaign style would play better in the Fairbanks North Star Borough elections: Hollow moderation or unrelenting rage.
Well, it turns out the answer is a pretty definitive “neither.”
It was an all-around lousy night for conservatives running for the six Borough-level seats in Fairbanks, with progressives pulling off a clean sweep of all three Borough Assembly seats, flipping two School Board seats and protecting a third. The Assembly will go from a 5-4 conservative majority to a progressive-leaning seven-member majority. Though there are about 1,700 votes absentee and questioned ballots to count, the progressive margins from Tuesday’s election are near-unsurmountable (it’d take 70% or more of the remaining votes to break for conservatives to flip the races).
Interestingly, election-day voting was virtually tied for the conservative and progressive Assembly candidates. Early voting carried progressives, breaking roughly 2:1 in their favor and giving each candidate a roughly 1,000-vote advantage heading into election day.
As long as the results stand, candidate Liz Reeves-Ramos stands to unseat conservative Assemblymember and former North Pole GOP Rep. Tammie Wilson by a 6-point margin (52.9% to 46.84%); candidate Nick LaJiness beat Assemblymember Jimi Cash by a 4.4-point margin (52.05% to 47.63%); and candidate Scott Crass bested conservative candidate Aaron Gibson for the third Assembly seat by 6.2-point margin (52.9% to 46.74%). The seat was vacated by term-limited conservative Assembly Chair Aaron Lojewski, who, by some accounts, has mayoral aspirations.
What we learned
As for the aforementioned question about campaign styles, the conservative Assembly candidates tried on a more moderate image with overtures on issues like education, planning and even unions that several observers said either rang hollow or were outright misleading. In one case, a conservative candidate took the unusual step of sending mailers to Democrat households of him glad-handing with Democratic Sen. Scott Kawasaki despite Kawasaki backing his opponent.
The School Board candidates, meanwhile, leaned heavily into the national right-wing playbook of transphobia, homophobia and book bans, all under the guise of “parental rights,” while accusing the progressives of being the ones with the “radical agenda.” It’s a recipe that has certainly whipped up some real vile hate across the country, but it looks like the lesser of two approaches, at least with Fairbanks Borough voters.
While the progressive Assembly candidates hold leads of 4.4 to 6.2 points, School Board member Tim Doran and candidates Meredith Maple and Bobby Burgess all have leads north of 10 percentage points over their conservative opponents. Sitting Board Member April Smith, the center of the “parental rights” talk on the School Board, trailed Burgess by the most significant margin, 13.35 points.
Of course, many more factors are at play in a local election than the campaign styles of the conservative candidates. The progressive side of the ticket for the Fairbanks Borough seats found quality candidates with clear, connecting messages and outpaced their conservative opponents in fundraising. Still, there was a fair bit of anxiety that the hollow moderation might sneak past voters.
In the big picture, however, it turns out that it’s pretty hard to paper over a year of far-right shenanigans with a few last-minute mailers, especially when many voters are casting ballots early.
Going over like an ore balloon
A crucial issue heading into the election was the conservatives’ seeming indifference toward the growing community alarm over the controversial trucking plan for the Manh Choh mining project. The conservative majority reversed course after the Assembly narrowly passed a resolution that opposed the proposal to send dozens of big ore haul trucks through the Borough’s busy public roads daily. It neutered the proposal by swapping in a bunch of softball language that downplayed the concerns and seemed openly obsequious to the companies.
In an exchange captured by the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, Wilson proclaimed at the hearing, “It’s none of our business to determine what a private business should or should not do” when discussing including a suggestion that they encourage the company to explore options other than running ore haul trucks on busy public roads. Another conservative said the Borough shouldn’t weigh in if the plan’s legal.
At the meeting, progressive-leaning Assemblymember Kristan Kelly put a fine point on where the interests of the conservative majority rested.
“What I find crazy is that we are bending over backwards for a for-profit corporation at the expense of the public health and safety of our residents,” Kelly said, according to the News-Miner reporting. “When it comes to public safety, that is our job as a government. We are here for the people, not corporations.”
And, it appears, Fairbanks voters agreed.
What’s next
The remaining absentee and questioned ballots are set to be counted next week. The only race they may play a critical role in is the Interior Gas Utility Board of Directors race, where former Alaska Senate President Pete Kelly has a narrow lead over University of Alaska Fairbanks economics professor Sherri Wall.
Already, attention is turning to the Fairbanks North Star Borough’s mayoral race next year, which will be open. Both Tammie Wilson and Aaron Lojewski could make runs for the seat as conservative candidates. Still, a progressive has already thrown his hat into the race: Former Fairbanks Democratic Rep. Grier Hopkins, who announced his candidacy on Facebook this afternoon.
“We are at a crossroads and need experienced, passionate leadership to see our way back to a thriving, growing borough,” he said. “I always believe that the best path to success comes by working together regardless of party or geography. By building bridges and creating partnerships, we can solve the biggest challenges Fairbanks faces.”
Stay tuned.