Twas the day before the primary

Hello, Alaska! It's been a while, and we've got a lot to run down.

But first, some personal news: Two weeks ago, I joined the Alaska Current as a full-time employee, marking the first time since 2017 that I won't be relying entirely on freelance work to pay the bills. It's an exciting opportunity that means more day-to-day support, better planning and a new focus on social video—which you may have seen if you're on Facebook or Instagram (coming soon to YouTube)—that I feel is particularly important at this moment in media. Far too often, I'll have a conversation with a friend about politics; they'll ask where they can learn more, and then their eyes will glaze over when I tell them it's all written word. If our mission is a more informed Alaska, we need to reach people wherever they are. That said, the folks at the Alaska Current recognize the work and value this newsletter has brought to both the state and me, so I have an agreement to continue and maintain the newsletter as an entirely independent publication. My goal for how all of this balances out will be one newsletter a week during the interim and more during the legislative session... which, yes, is more than I have been doing lately. I say all this knowing consistency has never been my strong suit, particularly in the last few years, but the change has forced me to think through the balance in a way that I hope will make work moving ahead more sustainable and consistent. And, frankly, I love writing in this conversational and informative space, so as long as there's the support, I'll keep doing it.

Thanks for everything! Everyone has been so kind throughout my unusual journalism career, but it turns out a kick in the butt once in a while helps.

Alright, let's get into it.

Current mood: 🥳

In this edition: Alaska's primary election is tomorrow, and it's a mad dash by everyone to shape the general election ballot, whether it be through massive amounts of likely illegal personal spending, shadow campaigns boosting third-party candidates or a mountain's worth of mailers, texts and signs. A lot of people have ideas about the best and most effective way to get their desired outcome through Alaska's open primary and ranked-choice voting system, but they seem more rooted in consultant-class thinking. Call it strategy, call it gaming the system; it's certainly an interesting approach in a year when voters across the spectrum seem particularly fed up with the status quo. While there are plenty of races to talk about, the big-ticket race for Tuesday is, of course, the fate of the state's 17-way race for next governor.

The 17-way primary finally comes to an end, while consultants grouse at the system.

While the congressional races are certainly big deals that may play a key part in deciding whether Democrats or Republicans control the House and Senate, the most consequential decision for Alaska will be in the governor's race. In the last eight years, the primary policy directive of moderates and progressives has been to minimize the harm that far-right Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy did to the state while doing what they could under the strict limitations of his veto (which he's used at a record pace). It's made for a largely status-quo eight years, where many of the big issues of our time—the budget, the dividend and the ability of state government agencies to deliver basic services—have languished.

Alaskans can change that when we elect a new governor in November, when we'll use ranked-choice voting, but first we'll have to whittle the 17-candidate field down to just four through the pick-one open primary. And when a few thousand votes will likely be the difference between who advances and who doesn't, there are endless permutations of what the race will look like.

So, let's take a survey of the candidates and storylines heading into the primary.

The Democrats—Tom Begich and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins—have benefited greatly from the fact that there are just two of them on the ballot to fight over the Democratic vote. In contrast, the Republican vote is spread across a dozen candidates, most of whom offer a slightly different version of Dunleavy. By most accounts, the two Democrats have a strong chance of finishing in the top four, but it seems less certain that both will advance to the general election.

Both told the Alaska Beacon that they're in talks about what they might do if they both make it into the general election.

Whether one will drop out seems to largely depend on who is in the other two seats, but it's not exactly the most inspiring strategy at a time when voters are already skeptical of consultants and party officials ignoring voters' interests.

If there's a chance the Democrats will consolidate anyway, I've had moderate and progressive voters say they may end up using their primary vote to elevate other candidates to the race. On the moderate side, there are candidates like labor-friendly Republican Click Bishop and former Gov. Bill Walker, who have been eating into each other's chances of making it to the general. Meda DeWitt has had a strong grassroots showing with progressive voters, especially as some of the shine has come off the Democrats—as much as the consultants would like to pretend that she simply doesn't exist.

If any of those make it onto the general alongside the two Democrats, I'd hazard a guess that it'd make for a far different calculus on the Democrats' consolidation plan than if, say, two hardliner Republicans round out the ballot.

And speaking of hardliner Republicans, Alaska has an embarrassment of riches that is, frankly, a bit of a problem for them. There may be more Republican voters in Alaska, but they're going to be spread much more thin across the candidates, and outside of Bernadette Wilson, who seems to really have taken up the mantle of promising the big PFD, no one seems to have really solidified their spot in the race. That said, her frontrunner status has also made her the target of other Republican-backed spending, with ads calling her character into question.